SCC Preview: Few solid bets at the difficult Talladega

I have to be honest. Most of the time, my crystal ball is in pretty good working order and I can be heard singing, not that well, mind you, that old, hot rock 'n' roll hit "I Can See Clearly Now." However, when it comes to Talladega lately, the song that sums up my success in picking a good team is "Smoke Gets In Your Eyes."

To put it more simply, NASCAR's biggest track has made "The Guru" look like a goober.

To prepare my prognostications for each Sprint Cup race, I look at the top 25 from the past four races at that particular track and the past four races on tracks of similar size, and I thumb through individual driver stats. Then I watch the practices and make my normal Sunday-morning visit the garage area, walking and talking to the crew chiefs and anyone else who can help me get my arms around what will happen after the green flag waves. I leave no rock unturned when trying to help you, and I pick the best drivers for your Stock Car Challenge team. I'm normally in the ballpark, but when it comes to Talladega, the past two seasons I've been stuck out in the parking lot.

I shouldn't be too hard on myself, though. Most drivers, just about to a man, say that to predict the Talladega finish, you can take all the car numbers, throw them in a hat, then pull them out one by one. It's that much of a crapshoot.

That's because there are two "equalizers." One, the track has more grip than Daytona, and with the new winged Sprint Cup machines blowing a bigger hole in the wind, even the slower cars can hang in the lead draft. That leads to my second point. With so many drivers running together in a tight pack of 30 or more cars, three and sometimes four wide, the multicar crash, "the big one," is always one little mistake or blown tire away from turning Talladega into a temporary junkyard.

What's an "expert" to do? This time around, I'm going to lean heavily on what the history book tells me.

Last year, only one driver, David Ragan, finished in the top five in the two Alabama races and Clint Bowyer was the only other guy to run top-10 in both. When you spread it out to the top 15, five others drivers join those two: Robby Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Burton, Paul Menard and Kyle Busch. And Busch scored far more points in the plate races last year than anyone else. Rowdy accumulated 104 more points than the guy who surprisingly finished second in that category, Gordon, who outpointed Tony Stewart and Bowyer by 42. Ragan was fifth in points scored on the plate tracks and Menard was sixth. Gordon's and Menard's presence in the top six in that category is absolute proof that Daytona and, more so, Talladega are completely different animals. Especially when you consider that Jimmie Johnson ranked 12th in plate points last season and the man who nearly beat him for the championship, Carl Edwards, wound up ranked 18th.

But when you tally the points for the past six races at Talladega, Johnson is No. 1 by 115 points over Kurt Busch. Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick round out the first five. Six to 10 in this category are Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman, Matt Kenseth, Casey Mears and Robby Gordon. You might be surprised to know that although Dale Earnhardt Jr. has won five times at Talladega, he ranks 18th in points scored in his past half-dozen starts on the mammoth, 2.66-mile track. In this category, Edwards ranks 21st.

I'll try to set up my team by going by the numbers. I'm not about to factor in what tugs at my heart or what my gut tells me. No, I'm going to spit out a team as if it came out of a computer with some genius analytical software program. And with that, I'm going to knock the Talladega monkey right off my back. But of course, another more likely scenario exists. Three of my guys, like always, could get swept up in the big one. Then I would leave Alabama, as Ryan Newman said earlier this year about his Daytona 500 performance, with my tail tucked so tightly between my legs that I could sing soprano.

Big bucks (SCC value 21.0 and up)

Jimmie Johnson (24.6) is the most expensive driver and will be a major factor Sunday. The same can be said of Jeff Gordon (24.3) and Kyle Busch (22.9). Tony Stewart (22.4) could win and save you some cap space. Denny Hamlin (22.6) also should have a strong run, but he's in "tweener" land between Busch and Stewart, who should score a few more points.

Serious coin (SCC value 19.0 to 20.9)

In this group, I have mad love for Mark Martin (20.2), whose price is still a bargain. He should be really good at Richmond next week. Kurt Busch (20.8) will probably come through with a pretty big performance at a decent value. Speaking of which, this might be the time to get on the David Ragan (20.1) bandwagon. He should lead the way for Roush Fenway.

Budget boys (SCC value 13 .0 to 18.3)

There should be some help down here this weekend. Robby Gordon's plate numbers are fact Jack, and his 13.5 price will seem too good to be true if he stays out of trouble. Be prepared, though, to dump him before the Richmond race. Paul Menard (15.3) is another guy to consider for Talladega, but nowhere else at this point. If you're looking for a little less risk and are willing to pay more money, think about Ryan Newman (18.3), Juan Pablo Montoya (18.1), David Reutimann (18.0), Brian Vickers (17.9) and Marcos Ambrose (15.7).

Debit … not credit

I'm staying away from Dale Earnhardt Jr. for this race. He hasn't done much lately on the season or this track and you can spend .8 more and get Stewart. You also could take Kurt Busch or Mark Martin, who in my opinion are less risky. I also don't expect much from Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle. I don't see their two teammates, Jamie McMurray and Matt Kenseth, setting the world on fire, either. If you want to go with a Roush Fenway driver, go with Ragan, then Kenseth. The RCR gang -- Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick -- should be respectable, but they'll be just hanging on. Their cars lack overall speed.

Guru Garrow's gang

I've decided at this point not to make too many changes to my prerace lineup going into Talladega. As a matter of fact, I'll swapping out only one driver: Jeff Gordon for Jimmie Johnson. That means I'll keep Tony Stewart and Mark Martin along with Ryan Newman, eighth at Talladega in the Spring 2008 Dega race. I'll also retain Marcos Ambrose, who continues to improve and opened the season with a 17th-place finish in the Daytona 500.